Why FRH targets Columbus

Demand drivers

Population and jobs

• The Columbus MSA reached 2,242,028 residents on July 1, 2025. It added more than 21,000 people in a year, about 1.0% growth, or double the national rate of 0.5% ¹².
• Total nonfarm jobs were nearly flat from August 2025 to August 2026, up 700 (+0.1%, preliminary) ³. Population is growing faster than payrolls right now, which supports renter demand but argues for conservative rent assumptions.

Employers and anchor investments

• Anduril Arsenal-1 (Rickenbacker). Anduril has committed $910.5 million and plans 4,008 jobs by 2035. Fury production began in March 2026, and the first Ohio-built aircraft was completed on July 27, 2026 ⁴. The south and southeast side (Groveport, Obetz, Canal Winchester, Pickaway County) is the closest housing catchment.
• L-H Battery Company (LG Energy Solution and Honda), Jeffersonville. Mass production of energy-storage battery cells began in July 2026 ⁵. Jeffersonville is in Fayette County, inside our radius.
• Intel Ohio One (New Albany). The $28 billion project has been pushed back. An internal memo puts completion in 2030–2031 ⁶. FRH underwrites no Intel-driven demand before 2030.

Infrastructure

• Columbus sits at the I-70/I-71 junction. Norfolk Southern's Rickenbacker intermodal terminal and CSX intermodal service anchor a large logistics base, and there is no river freight.
• Industrial demand is strong. CBRE reported 4.7% vacancy in Q3 2026, the lowest since 2023, with more than 8.0 million sq. ft. absorbed year to date and 14.4 million sq. ft. under construction ⁷.
• Ohio has 1,564 public DC fast-charging ports ⁸.

Housing supply and affordability

Supply is high but starting to roll over. Matthews reported 9,070 units under construction in Q2 2026, or 4.1% of inventory, with trailing-12-month completions of 6,964. Construction starts are expected to drop sharply in 2026 ⁹. Vacancy fell 64 bps from Q1 to 4.20%, but rent growth cooled to 1.6% year over year ⁹. Apartment List shows the City of Columbus median rent at $1,298 in October 2026, down 0.3% from a year earlier ¹⁰.

Valuations are full. Matthews puts the average price at a cycle-high $127,437 per unit and cap rates near 6.31% ⁹. For FRH, that market cap rate sets the yield-on-cost hurdle (about 150 bps above it). This favors buildings where the in-place rents are well below market and renovation can close the gap.

Where FRH strategies fit

Captured within about 75 minutes: Delaware, Marysville (Honda), Newark, Lancaster, Springfield, Zanesville (about 1h), Mansfield (about 1h05), Chillicothe and Dayton (about 1h10). Drive times are approximate.

Key risks

• Headline-project risk. Intel's slip shows how far a mega-project can move ⁶. We underwrite to actual payrolls, which were flat in the latest BLS release ³.
• Rent softness. City-level asking rents are slightly negative year over year ¹⁰, and 9,070 units are still under construction ⁹.
• Competition for small product. Strong population growth draws many small and mid-size buyers, which compresses entry yields.
• Property tax reassessments. Franklin County reappraisals can reset expense lines. We model taxes on the purchase price, not the seller's bill.