Why FRH targets Louisville

Demand drivers

Population and jobs

• The Louisville/Jefferson County MSA (Kentucky and Indiana) had 1,402,509 residents on July 1, 2025 ¹.
• Total nonfarm jobs fell by 900 (-0.1%) from August 2025 to August 2026, per preliminary BLS data, which BLS does not rate as significant ².

Employers and anchor investments

• Ford Louisville Assembly Plant. In August 2025 Ford committed about $2 billion to retool the plant to build a new midsize electric pickup, starting in 2027. Kentucky's governor said the investment will secure 2,200 jobs ³.
• BlueOval SK (Glendale). In December 2025 Ford and SK On ended their battery joint venture. Ford is taking sole ownership of the two Glendale buildings, and the governor said he expected activity in at least one of them, with timing to be worked out ⁴. FRH underwrites no Glendale hiring until Ford sets a production plan.
• UPS Worldport and logistics. Air cargo, distribution and healthcare are the other core employers.

Infrastructure

• The Ohio River (McAlpine Locks), CSX and Norfolk Southern, I-64/I-65/I-71 and UPS Worldport.
• Industrial demand is solid. CBRE reports Q3 2026 vacancy of 5.9%, up 210 bps from a year earlier as three speculative buildings delivered, with 1.41 million sq. ft. of net absorption and average asking rents of $6.78 per sq. ft. ⁵.
• Kentucky's public DC fast-charging network is thin, at 463 ports statewide ⁶.

Housing supply and affordability

CoStar reports overall Louisville apartment vacancy of 9% at the end of Q2 2026, up from 6.1% in Q2 2021, after inventory grew 15.5% over five years and new supply outpaced demand in parts of the market ⁷. Conditions vary by submarket. Institutional Property Advisors notes that Southern Indiana had the market's lowest vacancy, at 4.0% in March 2026, and absorbed more than two-thirds of the metro's 2025 net absorption ⁸.

For FRH that points to selectivity. Workforce buildings in tight submarkets (Southern Indiana and established Louisville neighborhoods with little new supply) can work. Submarkets with heavy new deliveries need distressed pricing. We did not verify a current market cap rate, so we confirm the yield-on-cost test (market cap rate plus about 150 bps) against local comparables on each deal.

Where FRH strategies fit

Captured within about 75 minutes: Jeffersonville/New Albany IN, Elizabethtown, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Bardstown and the Glendale battery campus. Lexington is at the edge. Drive times are approximate.

Key risks

• Rising apartment vacancy. Metro vacancy is at 9% ⁷.
• EV-related uncertainty. The Glendale plants' future is unresolved ⁴, and Ford's Louisville program depends on EV demand ³.
• Thin EV-charging network. Kentucky has 463 DC fast ports ⁶, which matters for long-run logistics and fleet users.
• Two-state underwriting. Kentucky and Indiana tax and landlord-tenant rules differ.